Eurozone’s backing for the Greek debt deal failed to stimulate the markets much; but, positive data released helped US stocks reach the highest level since 2008 while Asian markets rallied. Regionally, the Abu Dhabi and Saudi markets hit 5-month and 3-year highs respectively last week, boosted by recent oil price trends and improved global sentiment. Among currencies, euro gained to reach a 11-week high against the dollar while the yen was at a 7-month low. Oil surged to a nine-month high after an unsuccessful IAEA visit to Iran, while gold prices also rose, despite dollar’s weakness.
GProgress in the Greek debt negotiations alongside strong US data led to upbeat market sentiment. Better than expected financial results of GCC companies, amid positive news from the global markets, supported rallies in the region’s stock exchanges leading to substantial gains in Kuwait and Dubai bourses. The euro gained against the dollar and yen towards the end of last week as the Greece dilemma seemed closer to a resolution; the pound also gained against the dollar, given the rise in retail sales. Both gold and oil prices were up, with Middle East tensions sending oil prices higher.
Greek troubles and S&P downgrades played havoc last week, causing the rally in Asian markets also to wind down towards end of the week, even as TOPIX and Hong Kong remained near six-month highs. Regional markets were mixed, with Egypt gaining and Saudi closing at a 21-month high yesterday alongside small declines in Qatar and Abu Dhabi exchanges. Among currencies, the euro climbed after the Greek austerity plan received the go-ahead from the Cabinet but dipped on the latest uncertainty about Parliament ratification while the Indian rupee had its worst week since Dec last year. Gold prices continued to decline for a second consecutive week while oil prices spiked to a six-month peak on Thursday given the tensions on Iran.
The week started with a worldwide tumble when China's bourse reopened after a week with a 1.7% drop and Asian market sentiment was influenced by lower earnings. In general, just when you were thinking that the rebound in risky assets seen at the turn of the year is turning sour and the much touted January effect is over, markets recovered and ended the week on a positive note after the release of positive employment data in the US. Regional markets followed the global trend, with Saudi reaching a six-month high though the rally in Egypt was marred by recent riots. Among currencies, the dollar rose while its Asian counterparts gained on strong fund inflows. Oil prices were up last week; gold recorded its biggest one-day loss in over a month on Friday.
Global equity and commodity markets continue to be adversely affected by the turmoil spreading across the Middle East. Regional market performance also remained subdued given the political tensions in the region. Swiss Franc and yen gained on safe haven buying while oil and gold prices continued to rise. However, assurances from Saudi Arabia and the IEA that global oil production would not be significantly affected by the recent turmoil helped oil prices to retreat from two-and-a-half-year highs.
Equity markets in advanced economies seem to have brushed aside Middle East (ME) tensions - world equities, measured by the MSCI All-Country World Index, hit more than 2-1/2 year highs. Meanwhile, the region continues to be adversely affected - Kuwait slumped to a 7-month low and Saudi Arabia was down 3.7%, the largest decline among regional markets. GBP hit a 5-month high on rate hike speculation while Europe’s debt worries and ME unrest fuelled the safe haven demand for the Swiss franc. Geopolitical fears continue to weigh on commodities as oil (Brent) was up to more than $102 a barrel and gold prices surged on safe haven buying.
Developed stock markets were mixed but emerging markets took a hit due to risk aversion spurred by the Egyptian crisis, monetary tightening in China and rotation in asset management. There is a feeling that stock market in EM have run their course for now, but this feeling has not involved regional which have seen some substantial rebound. Exchange rates were little changed with the euro a little weakened. Oil was marginally higher and gold essentially stable.
Solid growth and profits outweighed weak jobs data in the US and Asian markets were mostly up, in a week where global financial markets were on edge over the ongoing unrest in Egypt. Regional markets recovered from the sharp decline witnessed last Sunday, when the GCC markets (excluding Saudi) lost close to $ 10bn market cap. GBP surged to a 3-month high, while Trichet’s inflation comments led to a decline in the euro. Oil prices held above $102 and gold prices surged as well, both under pressure from Egypt’s crisis.